An Interdisciplinary Approach to Assessing Vulnerability of US Midwest to Drought and Heat Waves

Melissa R. Allen-Dumas, G. Loren Toole, Vincent C. Tidwell

More severe summer heat waves and droughts in the US Midwest attributable to climate change as well as changes in population distribution can create significant operational stress in the future. Planning options could potentially reduce these vulnerabilities. Costs and benefits of these options must account for population shifts and the impact of climate on electricity service areas, ranges of electricity demand and supply limitations, modification of demand in response to new end-use technology and linking water usage with power plant outages. Three adaptation scenarios based on changes in electricity supply and demand for the greater Chicago, Illinois area were explored by applying a unique set of coupled infrastructure models created by US National Laboratories. The authors find that due to projected population changes in the region, the total number of metered customers approximately doubles by 2054 and total electric energy usage increases over 70%. The latter effect is due in part to projected increases in maximum summer temperatures and frequency of heat waves in the region. Concomitantly, low availability of water during drought conditions and high temperature effluent discharges during heat waves and higher overall temperatures will threaten operations for 30% or more of current power plant capacity reducing critical supply during peak demand. These conditions could lead to a severe supply reserve deficit by 2054 and rapidly declining capacity margins during prior decades. New technology and other changes such as effective demand-based rates could substantially modify customer usage post-2024. Additionally, many water-cooled power plants near the end of their operational lives could be replaced by more water efficient generation, at least partially mitigating these effects.

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