Peer Reviewed Journal via three different mandatory reviewing processes, since 2006, and, from September 2020, a fourth mandatory peer-editing has been added.
More severe summer heat waves and droughts in the US
Midwest attributable to climate change as well as changes in
population distribution can create significant operational stress
in the future. Planning options could potentially reduce these
vulnerabilities. Costs and benefits of these options must
account for population shifts and the impact of climate on
electricity service areas, ranges of electricity demand and
supply limitations, modification of demand in response to new
end-use technology and linking water usage with power plant
outages. Three adaptation scenarios based on changes in
electricity supply and demand for the greater Chicago, Illinois
area were explored by applying a unique set of coupled
infrastructure models created by US National Laboratories. The
authors find that due to projected population changes in the
region, the total number of metered customers approximately
doubles by 2054 and total electric energy usage increases over
70%. The latter effect is due in part to projected increases in
maximum summer temperatures and frequency of heat waves in
the region. Concomitantly, low availability of water during
drought conditions and high temperature effluent discharges
during heat waves and higher overall temperatures will threaten
operations for 30% or more of current power plant capacity
reducing critical supply during peak demand. These conditions
could lead to a severe supply reserve deficit by 2054 and rapidly
declining capacity margins during prior decades. New
technology and other changes such as effective demand-based
rates could substantially modify customer usage post-2024.
Additionally, many water-cooled power plants near the end of
their operational lives could be replaced by more water efficient
generation, at least partially mitigating these effects.
